Introduction

A current area of modern research is the examination for links between economic indicators and space weather, which is determined, on the one hand, by the globalization of the economy, and on the other hand, by the planetary scale of the impact of space weather on all the layers of the Earth.

The influence of solar activity on variations in the cost of wheat was established by William Herschel in 1801. Since then, numerous verifications have accumulated on the conjugation of the rhythms of various economic indicators and solar, geomagnetic activity, etc. [1, 2, 3].

Today, cryptocurrencies are of particular interest. However, there is an opinion that the crypto market is too young (assets have been traded for about 15 years), volatile, and subject to the influence of unpredictable events; therefore, it is difficult to identify cycles in it. We believe that such cycles can be found if the conjugation of their rhythms with space weather indicators is used as a methodological basis. It seems appropriate to analyze the rhythms of several common and at the same time different in terms of the functioning features of cryptocurrencies in order to establish, if possible, universal rhythms for them.

The aim of the study is to find common rhythms in the functioning of cryptocurrencies and space weather.

Materials and methods

Using the Fourier spectral analysis and the cosinor analysis variant described in [4] (to ensure the reliability of the results), the most powerful rhythms in the average daily space weather indices Ap (mid-latitude index of geomagnetic activity) and F10.7 (solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm) were identified, reflecting the magnetospheric and ionospheric channels of transmission of its influence to the habitat. Rhythms were also found for the number of transactions of the Avalanche, Bitcoin, Dash, Dogecoin, Etherium, Litecoin, Polygon, and Zcash cryptocurrencies. The general range of dates is 2009-2024. The range of the analyzed rhythms within the framework of this work is 0.1-5 years. The upper limit of the duration of the analyzed periods is due to the limit of the accuracy of Fourier analysis measurements on series of such duration. Rhythms below the 0.1-year limit, related to infradian rhythms, as well as the dependence of cryptocurrency dynamics on short-term fluctuations in space weather (e.g. magnetic storms) are the subject of our other studies.

It has been previously shown that, among other cryptocurrency indicators, it is the number of transactions, not the rate, that depends on space weather [5]. It is important to note that it is the number of transactions (as opposed to the cryptocurrency rate) that directly depends on the behavior of market participants, which are often unrelated to each other. Namely, a person’s mental state and behavior are primarily associated with space weather [6]. A separate check within the framework of this study confirmed this. Therefore, the results for the number of transactions will be provided below. All initial data were obtained from open sources, in particular, from the Google Big Query open data repository. Big Query is Google’s cloud service for working with big data, launched in 2011. It offers online data storage that allows you to securely store and quickly process large volumes of information without the need for a separate server for these purposes. The data was obtained by executing SQL queries directly through the Google Big Query console. The source of data for identifying the impact of space weather on the transaction statistics of the cryptocurrency in question was the constantly updated online file https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_Ap_SN_F107_since_1932.txt of the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ.

Results

Table 1 provides a list of the most significant periods in the studied indicators – the indices of geomagnetic activity Ap, solar F10.7 and the number of cryptocurrency transactions, the names of which are also given in the first column of the table.

Table 1. The most powerful periods in the indices of solar (F10.7) and geomagnetic activity (Ap) and in the number of cryptocurrency transactions (in years)

Close or coinciding cycles in solar, geomagnetic activity and the number of cryptocurrency transactions were revealed. Literature analysis showed that these space weather rhythms exist and have approximately the same duration over different time intervals (not only during 2009-2024). Thus, a semi-annual rhythm (0.5 years) is always present in geomagnetic activity [7]. Periods of 1.3-1.4; 1.7-1.8 years are present in the solar wind, cosmic rays, solar flares, etc. and, accordingly, in the space weather indices Kp, F10.7, Flare index, etc. [8, 9]. Periods of 0.9 years; 1.3-1.4 years; 1.7-1.8 years are close to the harmonics of the Rieger cycle of ~0.44 years, which is present in the frequency of solar flares [10]. Other revealed periods also find their own explanation and/or are linked into the general spectrum of solar-terrestrial connections.

It would seem that one would expect the presence of an annual period in the number of transactions in cryptocurrency. However, the financial year does not coincide with the calendar year in all countries: for example, in the USA is from October 1 to September 30, in Japan is from April 1 to March 31.

Discussion

There is reason to believe that the dependence of economic indicators on space weather, including the conjugation of rhythms, is not only a consequence of the indirect influence of solar activity on climate and weather, through it - on crop yields, resource consumption and, ultimately, on the dynamics of pricing; but also directly on the mental state, the behavior of individuals and societies literally on all time scales (summary data are given, for example, in the work [11]). The main mechanism for the connection of biological and social processes with variations in space weather is the mechanism of synchronization, when internal auto-oscillations of systems are adjusted to external time sensors: first of all, ultra-low-frequency electromagnetic fields and variations in galactic cosmic rays, which play an important signal role [12, 13].

The cycles known in macroeconomics include in particular: short-term Kitchin cycles (3–4 years); medium-term Juglar cycles (within 7–11 years); Kuznets cycles (17–25 years); long Kondratiev waves – within 45–60 years. In this article, we leave out of account attempts to interpret, discuss purely economic causes of these cycles and unsuccessful attempts to link them into a single picture, which is covered in sufficient detail, for example, in the monograph [14]. On the other hand, these cycles are seen in many social and biological phenomena and are also associated with space weather. For example, the period of long Kondratiev waves (55±5 years) is found in many social and natural phenomena and is one of the most stable and powerful in space weather, both in the ionospheric and magnetospheric channels of transmission to the environment [15]. Each Kondratiev wave includes five ~11-year cycles of solar activity – from maximum to maximum. Moreover, the above-mentioned economic cycles are not only de facto close to the harmonics of the expressed cycles of solar activity, but also contain their subtler characteristics. Thus, the ~11-year cycle of solar activity (can vary within 7-17 years) is characterized by a rapid (~4 years - the upper limit of the Kitchin cycle) rise and a slow (~7 years - the lower limit of the Juglar cycle, and the ~11-year cycle of solar activity is equal to its upper limit) decline. A full cycle of solar activity of twenty-two years is close in duration to the Kuznets cycle. By the way, the Kitchin cycle is also represented in space weather on our interval by two rhythms – 3.2 and 4.0 years.

It is noteworthy that shorter cycles are practically not considered in the economy, whereas in our work the rhythms of ~0.5; ~0.9; 1.3-1.4; 1.7-1.8; 2.2-2.3; 2.6-2.8; 3.1-3.3 years are found both in space weather indices and in most cryptocurrencies, which certainly opens up new prospects in a wide variety of economic studies. The resulting set of conjugate periods, as well as other longer economic cycles (which we could not experimentally analyze here due to the short length of the data series) are not only harmonic, but also find real expression in the fluctuations of all cosmophysical parameters, as well as the state of the magnetosphere and ionosphere of the Earth, ultimately reflecting in variations in the weather, climate, and biotropic electromagnetic background of the habitat.

Conclusions

The analysis of the transaction rhythms of 8 different cryptocurrencies and the indices of geomagnetic activity Ap and solar activity F10.7 in the range of 0.1-5 years over 2009-2024 revealed their close relationship, which indicates a possible connection of some features of this market with space weather variations. It should be noted that the rhythms characteristic of space weather is often encountered in cryptocurrencies, namely: ~0.5; ~0.9; 1.3-1.4; 1.7-1.8; 2.2-2.3; 2.6-2.8; 3.1-3.3 years. The obtained results can serve as a starting point for studying short-period cyclicality in the economy with an eye to their dependence on the rhythms of space weather, building mathematical models aimed at forecasting and a subtler analysis of processes (for example, taking into account phase shifts of certain rhythms in the economy relative to the rhythms in space weather indicators).